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ON STATISTICAL DETECTION OF LARVAL INDICES: AN INNOVATIVE STRATEGY FOR CONTROL OF MOSQUITO-BORNE DISEASES IN THE DISTRICT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN REGION OF MAHARASHTRA
Keywords:
larval indices, house index (HI), container index (CI), Breteau index (BI), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17654/0972086324005Abstract
Background. Larval indices such as the house index (HI), container index (CI), and Breteau index (BI) are widely used as alarm signals to interpret vector-borne diseases in surveillance programs. Presently, larval indices such as house index > 10% or container index > 5% or Breteau index > 50% are used as alarm signals to detect outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases. However, some areas remain missing for active surveillance due to guidance posed to health workers for active surveillance. The present study aims to investigate the new modified cut-off points for early intervention of Aedes aegypti for the district of Solapur southwestern region of Maharashtra state in India.
Background. Larval indices such as the house index (HI), container index (CI), and Breteau index (BI) are widely used as alarm signals to interpret vector-borne diseases in surveillance programs. Presently, larval indices such as house index > 10% or container index > 5% or Breteau index > 50% are used as alarm signals to detect outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases. However, some areas remain missing for active surveillance due to guidance posed to health workers for active surveillance. The present study aims to investigate the new modified cut-off points for early intervention of Aedes aegypti for the district of Solapur southwestern region of Maharashtra state in India.
Result. The $\mathrm{HI}_{\mathrm{MAX}}$ (maximum block $\mathrm{HI}$ in a radius of $100 \mathrm{~m}$ ) had an area under the ROC curve of $64.5 \%$. At the cut-off of $8 \%$ $(p<0.01)$, the predicted transmission is with $46.8 \%$ sensitivity and $81.1 \%$ specificity. The $\mathrm{CI}_{\mathrm{MAX}}$ (maximum block $\mathrm{CI}$ in a radius of $100 \mathrm{~m}$ ) had an area under the ROC curve of $64.5 \%$. At the cut-off of $4.13 \% \quad(p<0.01)$, the predicted transmission is with $39.2 \%$ sensitivity and $84.6 \%$ specificity. The $\mathrm{BI}_{\mathrm{MAX}}$ (maximum block BI in a radius of $100 \mathrm{~m}$ ) at 2-month intervals had an area under the ROC curve of $67.6 \%$. At the cut-off of $7.69 \% \quad(p<0.01)$, the predicted transmission is with $50.6 \%$ sensitivity and $77.6 \%$ specificity.
Conclusion. In conclusion, the specified standard values may serve as reliable indicators for the timely identification of dengue outbreaks and as a guide for the implementation of targeted vector management strategies. The overarching goal is to effectively manage dengue epidemics by maximizing the prudent allocation of financial, technical, and human resources.
Received: October 29, 2023
Accepted: December 1, 2023
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