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FORECASTING THE SPREAD OF COVID-19 DISEASE IN ZAMBOANGA CITY USING SIR MODEL IN R
Keywords:
forecast, SIR model, rate of infection, spread of the disease.DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17654/0972361724006Abstract
The purpose of this study is to forecast the number of susceptible, infected and removed individuals of COVID-19 disease in Zamboanga City using the SIR model in R for the next 250 days. Data collected were from June 2020 to August 2022 consisting of the number of susceptible, infected and removed individuals in Zamboanga City. Results of the study showed that the number of susceptible individuals is decreasing in time as the disease spread continuously over time and the number of removed individuals is continuously increasing in time in the assumption that there is still an infected individual of the disease. Furthermore, predicted values showed that the peak of pandemic in Zamboanga City is expected to happen in the 134th day with a rate of infection of 1.177672.
Received: September 18, 2023
Accepted: November 9, 2023
References
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DOH Confirms First 2019-NCOV Case in the Country; Assures Public of Intensified Containment Measures, 2020. Retrieved from https://doh.gov.ph/doh-press-release/doh-confirms-first-2019-nCoV-case-in-the-country.
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Zamboanga City Reports First COVID-19 Case, 2020. Retrieved from http://www.cnnphilippines.com/regional/2020/3/25/Zamboanga-City-reports-first- COVID-19-case.html.
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