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DOMINANCE ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACTS OF HEADLINE INFLATION ON PROPERTY CRIMES
Keywords:
inflation, property crime, dominance analysis, random forest, Pearson correlation.DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17654/0972361724049Abstract
Inflation has been a problem in many countries and ruined many empires for centuries. It has been rising continuously and remains a threat to the world economy. As prices rise, the demand for cheap stolen goods grows, strengthening incentives to increase the supply of stolen merchandise and increasing property crimes. With Artificial Intelligence gaining popularity, Random Forest, a machine learning model with ensemble learning properties, was selected to perform a dominance analysis of the impacts of headline inflation on property crimes. Two datasets from timelines 2011-2019 in Northern Mindanao (Region X) Philippines were utilized: 1.) The Headline Consumer Price Index (11 Goods and Services) 2.) The Indexed Property Crimes (4 Crimes). Four Random Forest Models are developed to determine the level of dominance of the major goods and services in terms of their impact on each property crime. The following are the models: Model 1: Goods and Services vs. Robbery, Model 2: Goods and Services vs. Theft, Model 3: Goods and Services vs. Carnapping, and Model 4: Goods and Services vs. Cattle Rustling. Pearson Correlation Analysis also considered the correlation of each classified good and service. The scores obtained from the Random Forest Feature Importance Models and the Pearson Correlation Analysis are normalized and combined to get the final Consumer Price Index (C.P.I.) - Components scores. The results show that alcoholic beverages, Health, and Clothing and Footwear strongly impact property crimes while Communication, Transportation, and Education have a low impact.
Received: February 26, 2024
Revised: April 29, 2024
Accepted: May 10, 2024
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