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PREDICTING THE GENDER DEVELOPMENT INDEX OF EUROPEAN STATES THAT HAVE TOP RANK OF HDI
Keywords:
predicting, gender, development, index, HDI.DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17654/0972361724044Abstract
This paper aims to determine the best models that are used to predict Gender Development Index (GDI) by using Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). The annual data sample consists of GDI spanning from 1990 to 2021 categorized by European states that have top rank of Human Development Index (HDI) in the world for the year 2021: Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, Denmark, Sweden, Ireland, Germany. It is concluded that ARIMA is acceptable for the predictive purpose of forecasting the GDI of European states that have top rank of HDI in the world for the year 2021, respectively, as follows: Switzerland ARIMA Norway ARIMA Iceland ARIMA Denmark ARIMA Sweden ARIMA Ireland ARIMA Germany ARIMA The actual, fitted and residual series are passing closely through 50% confidence interval. Therefore, the forecasting of GDI is significant and the ability of forecasting model is satisfactory. The difference between fitted and actual values has a very low relative error range which is between (0.05%, 0.71%) having highly predictive power and representing in Theil Inequality Coefficient of the models that range between (0.0022-0.0084) and Bia proportion range between (0.0005- 0.8533). Therefore, the forecasting of GDI is significant and the ability of forecasting models is satisfactory.
Received: March 15, 2024
Accepted: April 20, 2024
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