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TIME SERIES MODELS TO FORECAST BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICES AND THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 USING E-VIEWS PROGRAM
Keywords:
time series models, forecasting, crude oil, COVID-19, E-views programDOI:
https://doi.org/10.17654/0972361723020Abstract
In this paper, we study the time series models to forecast monthly Brent crude oil prices and the impact of COVID-19. Time series is a series of data obtained in chronological order. Future values of most of time series can be forecasted according to current and past values. The E-views software is a software package specifically designed to process time series data. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, a time series forecast method, can be achieved with the E-views software. Based on the E-views software, the forecast procedure with ARIMA model is illustrated in this work. Noting the extent of the impact of COVID-19 on it, the monthly cases are forecasted from 3-2016 to 2-2022. The results show that ARIMA(0,1,1) gave a better forecast for the data system.
Received: January 8, 2023; Revised: February 10, 2023; Accepted: February 15, 2023; Published: March 22, 2023
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