.svg){kind=logo}
TIME SERIES FORECASTING FOR TOURISM INDUSTRY IN MALAYSIA
Keywords:
Box-Jenkins model, SARIMA model, time seriesDOI:
https://doi.org/10.17654/0972361725004Abstract
This study is conducted to forecast the future tourism demand in Malaysia by applying Box-Jenkins modelling. The time series data of tourist arrivals volume in Malaysia before MCO retrieved from MOTAC Malaysia database is implemented in this study. The forecast evaluation methods used to validate the best Box-Jenkins model before proceeding to forecasting stage are MAPE and RMSE, and the analysis was performed by using Python. The findings show that SARIMA $(2, 1, 1) (0, 1, 1)_{12}$ was considered as highly accurate forecasting model based on its least error produced.
Received: September 1, 2024
Accepted: October 7, 2024
References
Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM), Tourism Satellite Account 2020, Last modified 2021. http://www.dosm.gov.my/portal-main/release-content/tourism-satellite-account-2020
Douglas C. Frechtling, Forecasting Tourism Demand: Methods and Strategies, Butterworth-Heinemann, Oxford, 2001.
Bin Peng, Hong Song and Greg I. Crouch, A meta-analysis of international tourism demand forecasting and implications for practice, Tourism Management 45 (2014), 181-193.
D. I. Amir Hamzah, Maria Elena Nor, Sabariah Saharan, N. F. M. Hamdan and N. A. I. Nohamad, Malaysia tourism demand forecasting using Box-Jenkins approach, International Journal of Engineering and Technology 7(4) (2018), 454 457.
S. C. Thushara, Su Jen-Je and S. B. Jayatilleke, Forecasting international tourist arrivals in formulating tourism strategies and planning: the case of Sri Lanka, Cogent Economics and Finance 7(1) (2019), Article ID 1699884.
S. S. Abdul Halim and M. Nora, Modeling and forecasting of tourism demand in Malaysia, International Journal of Current Science Research and Review 3(12) (2020), 230-244.
L. F. L. Blanco and W. M. H. Ronald, Modeling and forecasting international tourism demand in Puno-Peru, Brazilian Journal of Tourism Research 14(1) (2020), 34-55.
G. E. P. Box and D. R. Cox, An analysis of transformations, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological) 26(2) (1964), 211-243.
Douglas C. Montgomery, Cheryl L. Jennings and Murat Kulahci, Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, John Wiley and Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey, 2015.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Pushpa Publishing House, Prayagraj, India
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
____________________________
Attribution: Credit Pushpa Publishing House as the original publisher, including title and author(s) if applicable.
No Derivatives: Modifying or creating derivative works not allowed without written permission.
Contact Pushpa Publishing House for more info or permissions.
Journal Impact Factor: 
