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ANALYZING AND MEASURING THE IMPACT OF POLLUTION ON THE DAILY MORTALITY RATES OF THE ELDERLY IN THE SAUDI ARABIA: A CASE STUDY OF THE CITY OF RIYADH
Keywords:
air pollutants, air pollution, elderly mortality, climate variables, Poisson regression model, generalized additive models, respiratory diseases, statistical methods.DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17654/0973514325009Abstract
Introduction. Air pollution is a major challenge impacting health in Saudi Arabia, particularly among the elderly. This study aimed to assess the impact of air pollution on daily mortality rates in the elderly population in Riyadh.
Methods and Materials. Data on air pollutants and climate variables were collected from air quality monitoring stations in Riyadh, while elderly mortality data was obtained from the General Authority for Statistics and the Ministry of Health. Statistical analysis was conducted using Poisson regression and generalized additive models to determine the relationship between pollution levels and elderly mortality rates.
Main Results. The findings revealed that while the overall mortality rate of the elderly is declining, the deaths related to air pollution are increasing. The pollutants that significantly impacted mortality were PM10, SO2, and CO1. Among the climate variables, mean visibility (MVM), wind speed (MWS), temperature (MT), and wind direction degree (WDD) were key factors. The generalized additive models outperformed the Poisson regression model in predicting future mortality.
Conclusion. Air pollution in Riyadh is linked to an increased mortality rate among the elderly, with several pollutants surpassing globally recommended limits. The study highlights the need for stricter environmental controls and strategies to mitigate pollution levels in order to improve public health outcomes.
Received: November 3, 2024;
Revised: November 25, 2024;
Accepted: January 8, 2025
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