JP Journal of Biostatistics

The JP Journal of Biostatistics is a highly regarded open-access international journal indexed in the Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI). It focuses on the application of statistical theory and methods in resolving problems in biological, biomedical, and agricultural sciences. The journal encourages the submission of experimental papers that employ relevant algorithms and also welcomes survey articles in the fields of biostatistics and epidemiology.

Submit Article

EFFECTIVE REPRODUCTION NUMBER AS INDICATOR OF HERD IMMUNITY TO SARS-CoV-2

Authors

  • A. B. Kiladze

Keywords:

SARS-CoV-2, Covid-19, effective reproduction number, basic reproduction number, herd immunity, vaccination.

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.17654/0973514322007

Abstract

Based on the mean basic reproduction number $\left(R_0=4.26\right)$  for SARS-CoV-2, the global and individual values of the effective reproduction number $(R)$  were determined for the ten leading countries in terms of vaccination against the novel coronavirus infection as of December 16-21, 2021. The calculation of $R$ made it possible to distinguish two clusters of countries for this indicator: (i) in the world as a whole, as well as seven countries (India, USA, Indonesia, Germany, Mexico, Russia, Pakistan) had $R>1$,  which does not allow us to discuss about the development of herd immunity; (ii) three countries (China, Brazil, Japan) have reached $R<1,$  which allows us to discuss about the prerequisites for the development of herd immunity. The relationship between the effective reproduction number and the share of population vaccinated is discussed. The herd immunity threshold to SARS-CoV-2 is determined at the level of 76.5%, which is achieved at $R_0=4.26$ and $R=1.$

Received: January 8, 2022 
Accepted: January 19, 2022

References

M. A. Billah, M. M. Miah and M. N. Khan, Reproductive number of coronavirus: A systematic review and meta-analysis based on global level evidence, PLoS One 15(11) (2020), e0242128. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0242128

A. Fontanet and S. Cauchemez, Covid-19 herd immunity: where are we?, Nature Reviews Immunology 20 (2020), 583-584. DOI: 10.1038/s41577-020-00451-5

Y. Liu and J. Rocklöv, The reproductive number of the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 is far higher compared to the ancestral SARS-CoV-2 virus, Journal of Travel Medicine 28(7) (2021), taab124. DOI: 10.1093/jtm/taab124

P. P. Rubió, Is the basic reproductive number (R0) for measles viruses observed in recent outbreaks lower than in the pre-vaccination era?, Eurosurveillance 17(31) (2012), 20233. DOI: 10.2807/ese.17.31.20233-en

Statistics of vaccination against coronavirus in Russia and in the World. https://gogov.ru/articles/covid-v-stats (21 December 2021, date last accessed).

Downloads

Published

2022-01-25

Issue

Vol. 19 (2022)

Section

Articles

License

Copyright (c) 2022 Pushpa Publishing House, Prayagraj, India

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

_________________________

Licensing Terms:

Attribution: Credit Pushpa Publishing House as the original publisher, including title and author(s) if applicable.

Non-Commercial Use: For non-commercial purposes only. No commercial activities without explicit permission.

No Derivatives: Modifying or creating derivative works not allowed without written permission.

Contact Puspha Publishing House for more info or permissions.

How to Cite

EFFECTIVE REPRODUCTION NUMBER AS INDICATOR OF HERD IMMUNITY TO SARS-CoV-2. (2022). JP Journal of Biostatistics, 19, 107-111. https://doi.org/10.17654/0973514322007

Similar Articles

1-10 of 48

You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.