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MODEL DISCRIMINATION FOR EPIDEMIOLOGICAL SEIR-TYPE MODELS WITH DIFFERENT TRANSMISSION MECHANISMS
Keywords:
stochastic epidemic models, the posterior predictive distribution, model determination.DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17654/0973514322012Abstract
Stochastic epidemic models can be a useful tool for understanding and managing disease progression as well as assessing different disease-control measures in public health. However, unless a sufficiently accurate epidemic model is used, such advantages are of minimal utility. It is feasible to interpret parameter estimates, compare disease outbreaks, and execute control techniques if the model gives a sufficient fit. This paper presents a new method for determining stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) epidemic models with varying infection rates. The technique investigates how SEIR models with various infection mechanisms can be assessed and differentiated given a set of removal times. The concept is built on employing a posterior predictive model checking technique with notion of predictive residuals to evaluate the discrepancy between observed and predicted removal times. The predictive distributions of removal trajectories and epidemic duration are both investigated. Simulation studies suggest that our method can successfully distinguish the infection rate from the assumption of the SEIR stochastic epidemic models.
Received: March 2, 2022
Accepted: April 11, 202
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