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A MULTISTATE MARKOV MODEL DESCRIBING THE PROGRESSION OF VARIOUS DETERIORATING STAGES OF CHRONIC KIDNEY DISEASE
Keywords:
life expectancy, availability, Kolmogorov differential equation, transition probabilities.DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17654/0973514322018Abstract
The reliability of human creatures and human activities is important for the new unpredictability of life, work and medication advancement. A well established approach used for calculating transition intensities between phases of chronic diseases is use of Markov models. The main goal of this study is to discover the survival analysis of a patient experiencing chronic kidney disease (CKD). In this paper, we study the reliability and availability of a system having numerous stages of deterioration. The explicit expressions for reliability and availability characteristics, for example, mean time to absorption (life expectancy), steady state availability are determined utilizing Kolmogorov differential equations technique. A hypothetical numerical example has been introduced to solve the transition rates, transition probabilities, expected number of patients in each stage, mean time spent by the patient in each stage and expected life expectancy which is based on the study of 97 patients with high risk of CKD.
Received: April 15, 2022
Revised: June 15, 2022
Accepted: July 9, 2022
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