TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS OF CORONAVIRUS DISEASE DURING THE SECOND WAVE: A MATHEMATICAL STUDY IN THE HOLY CITY UJJAIN
Keywords:
coronavirus, non-standard finite difference scheme, stability analysis, parameter estimation, method of least square, numerical simulation.DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17654/0972111822008Abstract
In this paper, we attempt to study the dynamics of coronavirus disease during the second wave in the Indian district of Ujjain. For this, we use a classical epidemic model of susceptible, exposed, infected and recovered population with saturated incidence and treatment rates. We derive an associated dynamically consistent nonstandard finite difference scheme and fit it to the corresponding cumulative number of infected cases reported by the government of Madhya Pradesh. By using the method of least square, we determine the basic reproduction number and other model parameters. In order to determine the relative importance of model parameters, we perform sensitivity analysis. The current study shows that the disease prevalence was highest in early May, and the basic reproduction number was 4.275 at that time. Along with this, the study highlights the need to follow the COVID-19 protocol and confirms that the disease spreads earlier in large cities than in smaller cities.
Received: July 22, 2022
Accepted: September 29, 2022
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